Golden State's big dilemma: Bogut or Ezeli with the starters

***I got this piece contributed to warriorsworld.net. Check it here. The formatting got a little wonky (the bullet points and links disappeared) and some of the jokes got toned down. But it's nice to see your writing up somewhere. Here is my original version.

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The Warriors are the atypical NBA team that can claim to have two quality, starting-caliber centers on the roster (which is really wonderful to think about when you remember they used to trot out cheese ball guys like Todd Fuller and Patrick O'bryant to man the paint).

Andrew Bogut and Festus Ezeli are both talented, and have a legitimate claim to being the man to jump center for the Warriors, In the 6 games he started, against the likes of Zack Randolph, Dwight Howard, and Deandre Jordan, Ezeli averaged 18.5 points, 12.6 rebounds and 3.1 blocks per 36 minutes. Bogut, despite his recent injuries, projects to continue to be a defensive stalwart in his age-31 season. Neither center is adept enough in the paint to get a basket consistently on his own, but both can score enough off lobs and put-backs to not completely stall the offense. Bogut has a break-out-only-in-case-of-emergency left-handed hook that scores more often than you'd expect, and a dependable, if awkward runner. He's also a deft passer with good vision. Ezeli will occasionally take a turnaround over his left shoulder, but those shots sometimes hit so hard off the backboard that I wonder whether he isn't trying to make the ball explode upon impact.

When asked about keeping Ezeli in the starting lineup after Bogut's return from a concussion, interim head coach Luke Walton was non-committal saying, "Festus is playing great. I haven't really sat down to think about that, and that's probably a discussion to have with Steve and the rest of the staff." Not exactly a guarantee to keep Bogut with the starters

Neither center is without his flaw, and choosing either man over the other could become a disasterous experiment in team chemistry. But since Ezeli is the new shiny thing, and "new" always equals "better," lets look at the pros and cons of starting Ezeli over Bogut.

Pros:

• The team in general looks more dynamic with Ezeli playing with the starters. He's quick out in transition on offense and defense and, with his speed, can trail a break for the jam, or catch a streaking point guard for a soul-crushing block on defense. When was the last time you remember Bogut catching a lob for a dunk on the break, or sprinting up the court on D to block a layup? Watch this clip of Ezeli doing both those things -- in 28 seconds. My goodness. If I hadn't been wearing a Warriors cap at the time my head might've exploded like an Ezeli missed bank shot.
• Ezeli looks like an NBA center. His perfectly chiseled body and leap-out-of-the-gym athleticism lends itself well to the ideal vision of a 5-man. Andrew Bogut? When he wears jeans, he kind of looks like my friend's dad.
• Starting Ezeli with Green allows Draymond to play the role of big-man facilitator, a role that makes better use of his myriad skills. The Michigan native, with his sound passing, is flourishing given the increased playmaking responsibilities. He's averaging 5.9 assists per game at the 4-spot, which puts him ahead of lead guards Kyle Lowry, James Harden, Reggie Jackson and Ty Lawson. He's almost Lebron-level, but at a much lower usage rate. When Bogut and Green are in the game together, their playmaking skills overlap, which isn't ideal on a team whose second unit could use a boost from another intelligent passer. 
• Festus' athletic game brings a greater variance to the Warriors, lifting the ceiling on their potential (but bringing with it a lower floor as well). If Bogut is the steady, dependable family sedan you've been driving for the past 11 years, then Ezeli is that sports car that gives you engine problems more often than you'd like, but, man, every once in a while there'll be a 20-minute stretch where the machine will amaze you with its combination of speed, power, and agility (like when Ezeli went 6-8 for 12 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 blocks against a Clippers team out for blood). Those exuberant 20 minutes can push the Warriors just enough for the win over a quality team, and are enough to make you overlook those plays where he's slow to rotate over to Chris Paul coming into the lane.

Cons:

• Lest we forget, Andrew Bogut is still really good at his job. He was All NBA Defensive Second Team just last season. In 2014-2015 the Australian big man averaged 2.6 blocks per 36 minutes; was second only to Kawhi Leonard (a human shark on the court) in Defensive Rating; and was number one in the league in Defensive Box Plus/Minus, a stat that measures an individual player's defensive points contribution per 100 possessions above league average. This is a lot of basketball nerd-speak to say AB was probably the best defensive center last year (despite the protestations you might here from Doc Rivers). Even with expected age-related decline, it would be hard for Ezeli, in his first year as a starter, to improve on Bogut's numbers.
• I'm not convinced Festus has real hands or real fingers. Have the Warriors new training staff checked? I hear they can do amazing things with 3D printers these days. How else can you explain Ezeli's inability to catch a basketball in the post? I think my dog has a higher success rate at catching balls, and Fido only uses his mouth. Maybe Festus Ezeli should use his mouth.
• Could part of Klay Thompson's slow start to this season be attributed to Bogut's absence? When Klay starts a game cold, I think it helps him to get an easy bucket to find his offensive rhythm. On the telecast, Jim Barnett says it all the time: players need to see the ball go in the rim to get themselves going. There's an action the Warriors run where Bogut, while holding the ball above his head on the left elbow, will allow Klay (or Steph) to curl around his screen, wait for him to cut toward the basket, and if the man guarding Klay is a step slow to recover, will slip a pocket pass between the two defenders for an easy Thompson layup. For a player that can be streaky like Klay, I think those easy buckets help with his confidence. I don't think Ezeli can play this role (and the Dubs don't ask him to) because his passing acumen isn't as sharp as Bogut's and, again, I'm not sure he has real hands.
• Festus claims he graduated from high school at the age of 14.  This is clearly impossible and a lie, and liars don't deserve to experience nice things like starting for the reigning NBA champions.

Best guess:

I think the Warriors will bring Bogut off the bench on Monday against Detroit and maybe for the next two or three games. The coaching staff will say it's to help the 260-pound center get his legs back but, in addition to that, I think the move will allow Walton and Co. more time to ascertain how Bogut functions on the second-unit, and whether Festus can continue to play Swagzeli ball over a longer period. 

The choice to start Ezeli over Bogut is unlike the decision last year to start Draymond Green over David Lee in that the former will most likely only net a marginal increase in on-court performance (remember, Bogut is a way better player now than Lee was then, and Festus is nowhere near Dray's level as a basketball player), whereas the later allowed the Warriors to become a hyper-active switching unit on defense and a paced and spaced team on offense.

Golden State's coaching staff has been in this position before. In the deciding game of the NBA Finals last June, Steve Kerr elected to keep Andrew Bogut on the bench for the dreaded thanks-for-coming-but-no-thanks DNP-CD while giving Ezeli 11 minutes of run. At the time there was the prospect of winning a title and a long offseason for hurt feelings and bruised egos to heal. Right now there's another 6 months of games (at least) to grind through. Let's see whether Walton has the wherewithal to make a similar move.